We introduce a quantitative framework for separating skill and chance in games by modeling them as complementary sources of control over stochastic decision trees. We define the Skill-Luck Index S(G) in [-1, 1] by decomposing game outcomes into skill leverage K and luck leverage L. Applying this to 30 games reveals a continuum from pure chance (coin toss, S = -1) through mixed domains such as backgammon (S = 0, Sigma = 1.20) to pure skill (chess, S = +1, Sigma = 0). Poker exhibits moderate skill dominance (S = 0.33) with K = 0.40 +/- 0.03 and Sigma = 0.80. We further introduce volatility Sigma to quantify outcome uncertainty over successive turns. The framework extends to general stochastic decision systems, enabling principled comparisons of player influence, game balance, and predictive stability, with applications to game design, AI evaluation, and risk assessment.

The prototyping of computer games, particularly card games, requires extensive human effort in creative ideation and gameplay evaluation. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) offer opportunities to automate and streamline these processes. However, it remains challenging for LLMs to design novel game mechanics beyond existing databases, generate consistent gameplay environments, and develop scalable gameplay AI for large-scale evaluations. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a comprehensive automated card game prototyping framework. The approach highlights a graph-based indexing method for generating novel game designs, an LLM-driven system for consistent game code generation validated by gameplay records, and a gameplay AI constructing method that uses an ensemble of LLM-generated action-value functions optimized through self-play. These contributions aim to accelerate card game prototyping, reduce human labor, and lower barriers to entry for game developers.

Addressing the question of how to achieve optimal decision-making under risk and uncertainty is crucial for enhancing the capabilities of artificial agents that collaborate with or support humans. In this work, we address this question in the context of Public Goods Games. We study learning in a novel multi-objective version of the Public Goods Game where agents have different risk preferences, by means of multi-objective reinforcement learning. We introduce a parametric non-linear utility function to model risk preferences at the level of individual agents, over the collective and individual reward components of the game. We study the interplay between such preference modelling and environmental uncertainty on the incentive alignment level in the game. We demonstrate how different combinations of individual preferences and environmental uncertainties sustain the emergence of cooperative patterns in non-cooperative environments (i.e., where competitive strategies are dominant), while others sustain competitive patterns in cooperative environments (i.e., where cooperative strategies are dominant).

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit robust problem-solving capabilities for diverse tasks. However, most LLM-based agents are designed as specific task solvers with sophisticated prompt engineering, rather than agents capable of learning and evolving through interactions. These task solvers necessitate manually crafted prompts to inform task rules and regulate LLM behaviors, inherently incapacitating to address complex dynamic scenarios e.g., large interactive games. In light of this, we propose Agent-Pro: an LLM-based Agent with Policy-level Reflection and Optimization that can learn a wealth of expertise from interactive experiences and progressively elevate its behavioral policy. Specifically, it involves a dynamic belief generation and reflection process for policy evolution. Rather than action-level reflection, Agent-Pro iteratively reflects on past trajectories and beliefs, fine-tuning its irrational beliefs for a better policy. Moreover, a depth-first search is employed for policy optimization, ensuring continual enhancement in policy payoffs. Agent-Pro is evaluated across two games: Blackjack and Texas Hold'em, outperforming vanilla LLM and specialized models. Our results show Agent-Pro can learn and evolve in complex and dynamic scenes, which also benefits numerous LLM-based applications.

We study computationally efficient methods for finding equilibria in n-player general-sum games, specifically ones that afford complex visuomotor skills. We show how existing methods would struggle in this setting, either computationally or in theory. We then introduce NeuPL-JPSRO, a neural population learning algorithm that benefits from transfer learning of skills and converges to a Coarse Correlated Equilibrium (CCE) of the game. We show empirical convergence in a suite of OpenSpiel games, validated rigorously by exact game solvers. We then deploy NeuPL-JPSRO to complex domains, where our approach enables adaptive coordination in a MuJoCo control domain and skill transfer in capture-the-flag. Our work shows that equilibrium convergent population learning can be implemented at scale and in generality, paving the way towards solving real-world games between heterogeneous players with mixed motives.

In this paper, we explore the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) Agents in playing the strategic social deduction game, Resistance Avalon. Players in Avalon are challenged not only to make informed decisions based on dynamically evolving game phases, but also to engage in discussions where they must deceive, deduce, and negotiate with other players. These characteristics make Avalon a compelling test-bed to study the decision-making and language-processing capabilities of LLM Agents. To facilitate research in this line, we introduce AvalonBench - a comprehensive game environment tailored for evaluating multi-agent LLM Agents. This benchmark incorporates: (1) a game environment for Avalon, (2) rule-based bots as baseline opponents, and (3) ReAct-style LLM agents with tailored prompts for each role. Notably, our evaluations based on AvalonBench highlight a clear capability gap. For instance, models like ChatGPT playing good-role got a win rate of 22.2% against rule-based bots playing evil, while good-role bot achieves 38.2% win rate in the same setting. We envision AvalonBench could be a good test-bed for developing more advanced LLMs (with self-playing) and agent frameworks that can effectively model the layered complexities of such game environments.

A paper by Deng and Conitzer in AAAI'17 introduces disarmament games, in which players alternatingly commit not to play certain pure strategies. However, in practice, disarmament usually does not consist in removing a strategy, but rather in removing a resource (and doing so rules out all the strategies in which that resource is used simultaneously). In this paper, we introduce a model of disarmament games in which resources, rather than strategies, are removed. We prove NP-completeness of several formulations of the problem of achieving desirable outcomes via disarmament. We then study the case where resources can be fractionally removed, and prove a result analogous to the folk theorem that all desirable outcomes can be achieved. We show that we can approximately achieve any desirable outcome in a polynomial number of rounds, though determining whether a given outcome can be obtained in a given number of rounds remains NP-complete.

Much recent work in the AI community concerns algorithms for computing optimal mixed strategies to commit to, as well as the deployment of such algorithms in real security applications. Another possibility is to commit not to play certain actions. If only one player makes such a commitment, then this is generally less powerful than completely committing to a single mixed strategy. However, if players can alternatingly commit not to play certain actions and thereby iteratively reduce their strategy spaces, then desirable outcomes can be obtained that would not have been possible with just a single player committing to a mixed strategy. We refer to such a setting as a disarmament game. In this paper, we study disarmament for two-player normal-form games. We show that deciding whether an outcome can be obtained with disarmament is NP-complete (even for a fixed number of rounds), if only pure strategies can be removed. On the other hand, for the case where mixed strategies can be removed, we provide a folk theorem that shows that all desirable utility profiles can be obtained, and give an efficient algorithm for (approximately) obtaining them.

In temporal logics, the operator F expresses that at some time in the future something happens, e.g., a request is eventually granted. Unfortunately, there is no bound on the time un- til the eventuality is satisfied which in many cases does not correspond to the intuitive meaning system designers have, namely, that F abstracts the idea that there is a bound on this time although its magnitude is not known. An elegant way to capture this meaning is through Prompt-LTL, which extends LTL with the operator F P ("prompt eventually"). We extend this work by studying alternating-time epistemic temporal logics extended with F P . We study the model-checking problem of the logic Prompt- KATL∗, which is ATL∗ extended with epistemic operators and prompt eventually. We also obtain results for the model-checking problem of some of its fragments. Namely, of Prompt-KATL (ATL with epistemic operators and prompt eventually), Prompt-KCTL∗ (CTL∗ with epistemic operators and prompt eventually), and finally the existential fragments of Prompt-KATL∗ and Prompt-KATL.